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Ot epochi Velikoj divergencii k epoche Velikoj konvergencii: Matematicheskoe modelirovanie i prognozirovanie dolgosrochnogo technologicheskogo i ekonomicheskogo razvitiya mirovoj dinamiki

  • Publishing country: Russia
    Language: Russian
    Author: Akaev A.A.
    Publisher: LENAND
    Publishing city: Moskva
    ISBN: 978-5-9519-3619-6
    Publishing year: 2023
    Number of pages: 352
    Binding: Hardback edition

  • Nastoyashhaya kniga posvyashhena prakticheskomu primeneniyu endogennych modelej ekonomicheskogo rosta dlya dolgosrochnogo modelirovaniya i prognozirovaniya ekonomicheskogo razvitiya razlichnych grupp stran s vysokim, srednim i nizkim urovnem dochodov na dushu naseleniya v industrial′nuyu epochu (1820–2050 gg.). V otdel′nuyu gruppu vydeleny strany BRIKS. V pervoj chasti knigi izlagayutsya klassicheskie ekzogennye i endogennye modeli ekonomicheskogo rosta, a takzhe sovremennye modeli rascheta technicheskogo (technologicheskogo) progressa, kotoryj igraet klyuchevuyu rol′ v ekonomicheskom razvitii lyuboj strany. Vydelyayutsya modeli, prigodnye dlya prakticheskich raschetov dolgosrochnoj technologicheskoj i ekonomicheskoj dinamiki. Na primere rascheta dolgosrochnoj dinamiki mirovoj ekonomiki izlagaetsya metod posledovatel′nych postadijnych utochnenij technicheskogo progressa, razrabotannyj avtorom. Rasschitan potencial NBIC-technologij, kak osnovnogo istochnika ekonomicheskogo rosta do 2050 g. Rassmotreny ogranicheniya, obuslovlennye postepennym istoshheniem uglevodorodnych energoresursov, a takzhe novaya strategiya energeticheskogo razvitiya dlya XXI v., obespechivayushhaya ekologicheskuyu bezopasnost′. Vo vtoroj chasti knigi, s pomoshh′yu prostejshej AN-modeli ekonomicheskogo rosta i metoda postadijnogo utochneniya technicheskogo progressa (A), osushhestvlyaetsya modelirovanie dvuchvekovogo processa perechoda k Velikoj divergencii (XIX v. i pervaya polovina XX v.), zatem --- ot divergencii k konvergencii (vtoraya polovina XX v.) i, nakonec, --- k uskoreniyu konvergencii v nachale XXI v. Prognoz, rasschitannyj po modeli, pokazyvaet, chto k 2050 g. sostoitsya Velikaya konvergenciya, i centr mirovogo proizvodstva tovarov i uslug vnov′ peremestitsya v Kitaj, Indiyu i drugie aziatskie strany, kak eto bylo v doindustrial′nuyu epochu. V tret′ej chasti knigi analiziruyutsya kontury modeli ustojchivogo razvitiya global′noj ekonomiki v pervoj polovine XXI v. Izlozheny problemy, tormozyashhie process konvergencii, a takzhe perspektivy dal′nejshego ustojchivogo razvitiya avangardnych stran razvivayushhegosya mira na primere stran BRIKS, kotorye segodnya vnosyat osnovnoj vklad v uskorenie konvergencii. Formuliruyutsya usloviya, obespechivayushhie ustojchivoe razvitie mirovoj ekonomiki, a takzhe mechanizmy i strategiya upravleniya ustojchivym rostom v pervoj polovine XXI v.


Category: Mathematic
Publishing country: Russia
Language: Russian
Themes by country: Russia
Author: Akaev A.A.
Publisher: LENAND
Publishing city: Moskva
ISBN: 978-5-9519-3619-6
Publishing year: 2023
Number of pages: 352
Binding: Hardback edition
Weight: 440гр.
Stage: PUBLISHED
Format: Printed book
Delivery time: 4-6 weeks
Summary

Nastoyashhaya kniga posvyashhena prakticheskomu primeneniyu endogennych modelej ekonomicheskogo rosta dlya dolgosrochnogo modelirovaniya i prognozirovaniya ekonomicheskogo razvitiya razlichnych grupp stran s vysokim, srednim i nizkim urovnem dochodov na dushu naseleniya v industrial′nuyu epochu (1820–2050 gg.). V otdel′nuyu gruppu vydeleny strany BRIKS. V pervoj chasti knigi izlagayutsya klassicheskie ekzogennye i endogennye modeli ekonomicheskogo rosta, a takzhe sovremennye modeli rascheta technicheskogo (technologicheskogo) progressa, kotoryj igraet klyuchevuyu rol′ v ekonomicheskom razvitii lyuboj strany. Vydelyayutsya modeli, prigodnye dlya prakticheskich raschetov dolgosrochnoj technologicheskoj i ekonomicheskoj dinamiki. Na primere rascheta dolgosrochnoj dinamiki mirovoj ekonomiki izlagaetsya metod posledovatel′nych postadijnych utochnenij technicheskogo progressa, razrabotannyj avtorom. Rasschitan potencial NBIC-technologij, kak osnovnogo istochnika ekonomicheskogo rosta do 2050 g. Rassmotreny ogranicheniya, obuslovlennye postepennym istoshheniem uglevodorodnych energoresursov, a takzhe novaya strategiya energeticheskogo razvitiya dlya XXI v., obespechivayushhaya ekologicheskuyu bezopasnost′. Vo vtoroj chasti knigi, s pomoshh′yu prostejshej AN-modeli ekonomicheskogo rosta i metoda postadijnogo utochneniya technicheskogo progressa (A), osushhestvlyaetsya modelirovanie dvuchvekovogo processa perechoda k Velikoj divergencii (XIX v. i pervaya polovina XX v.), zatem --- ot divergencii k konvergencii (vtoraya polovina XX v.) i, nakonec, --- k uskoreniyu konvergencii v nachale XXI v. Prognoz, rasschitannyj po modeli, pokazyvaet, chto k 2050 g. sostoitsya Velikaya konvergenciya, i centr mirovogo proizvodstva tovarov i uslug vnov′ peremestitsya v Kitaj, Indiyu i drugie aziatskie strany, kak eto bylo v doindustrial′nuyu epochu. V tret′ej chasti knigi analiziruyutsya kontury modeli ustojchivogo razvitiya global′noj ekonomiki v pervoj polovine XXI v. Izlozheny problemy, tormozyashhie process konvergencii, a takzhe perspektivy dal′nejshego ustojchivogo razvitiya avangardnych stran razvivayushhegosya mira na primere stran BRIKS, kotorye segodnya vnosyat osnovnoj vklad v uskorenie konvergencii. Formuliruyutsya usloviya, obespechivayushhie ustojchivoe razvitie mirovoj ekonomiki, a takzhe mechanizmy i strategiya upravleniya ustojchivym rostom v pervoj polovine XXI v.



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