Signal i SHum. Pochemu odni prognozy sbyvayutsya, a drugie - net (nov.of.)
Category: Statistics. Statistical Methods
Publishing country: Russia
Language: Russian
Themes by country: Russia
Author: Sil′ver N.
Publisher: Kolibri
Publishing city: Moskva
ISBN: 978-5-389-16405-5
Publishing year: 2019
Number of pages: 608
Binding: Hardback edition
Weight: 940гр.
Stage: PUBLISHED
Format: Printed book
Delivery time: 4-6 weeks
My schitaem, chto nash mir vo mnogom logichen i predskazuem, a potomu delaem prognozy, vyschityvaem veroyatnost′ zemletryasenij, epidemij, ekonomicheskich krizisov, pytaemsya ugadat′ rezul′taty torgov na birzhe i sportivnych matchej. V etom bezbrezhnom okeane dannych vazhno umet′ pravil′no raspoznat′ nastoyashhij signal i ne otvlekat′sya na bespoleznyj informacionnyj shum. O tom, kak etomu nauchit′sya, rasskazyvaet Nejt Sil′ver, politicheskij vizioner i guru statistiki, razrabotavshij sistemu prognozov, pozvolivshuyu dvazhdy maksimal′no tochno predskazat′ rezul′taty prezidentskich vyborov pochti vo vsech shtatach Ameriki. Ego kniga vo mnogom blizka issledovaniyam Nassima Taleba i stol′ zhe znachima dlya vsech, kto imeet delo s bol′shimi ob′′emami dannych i proschityvaet razlichnye varianty razvitiya sobytij. I esli Taleb govorit o zakonach zarozhdeniya «chernych lebedej», Sil′ver issleduet modeli i sposoby, pozvolyayushhie pojmat′ etich ptic v rasstavlennye nami seti. On obobshhaet opyt ekspertov-praktikov, izuchaet razlichnye modeli i podchody, pozvolyayushhie delat′ bolee tochnye prognozy. Kak i Daniel′ Kaneman, avtor bestsellera «Dumaj medlenno… Reshaj bystro», nablyudaya za povedeniem i myshleniem lyudej, ocenivayushhich neopredelennye sobytiya, Sil′ver utverzhdaet: da, komp′yutery nezamenimy pri rabote s ogromnymi massivami dannych, no dlya maksimal′noj tochnosti rezul′tatov neobchodim gibkij chelovecheskij um i opyt, ved′ prognozirovanie — eto planirovanie v usloviyach neopredelennosti.
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